Mystarstock Swing Stock Portfolio

Sector 1xBull 3xBull 3xBear
S&P500 SPY SPXL SPXS
VIX VXX (1x) XIV (1x) TVIX (2x)
Small Capital IWM TNA TZA
Finance XLF FAS FAZ
Semiconduct SMH SOXL SOXS
Energy XLE ERX ERY
Natural Gas UNG UGAZ DGAZ
Oil USO UWTI DWTI
Gold GDXJ JNUG JDST

 

One Response to Mystarstock Swing Stock Portfolio

  1. kcancer says:

    UNG/DGAZ/UGAZ Update, 160101

    News and Events

    Daily weather update, week January 4, it will be above average in New York city. It is hard to evaluate the overall weather national wide.

    160107, EIA inventory report.

    Bull Factors

    1. Power Generation.
    2. LNG Export.

    Bear Factors

    1. Inventory, all time high.
    2. Weather, Predicted mild winter weather, less use for heating.

    Trend

    From Dec. 16, 2015 to Dec. 31, 2015, NG price is up from 1.684 to 2.351, apparently bull. But it is rising very fast and very quickly, there is possibility of pullback.

    Bull and Bear at balance.

    Natural Gas Price Range

    Current Price: 2.351 (151231)
    Current Price range: 2.287 – 2.372 (151231)
    Expected low price: ? (160104)
    Expected high price: ? (160104)
    Low 2.275, if break down 2.275 (30% chance), then 2.265?
    High 2.387, if break up 2.387 (70% chance), then 2.400?

    Short term (one to two weeks) low price is ?.
    Long term (four weeks) bottom price is ?.

    New support: 2.20, 160101, next support: 2.00

    New resistance: 2.40, 160101

    Seasonally, natural gas prices tend to decline through August and generally find a bottom in early September.

    Nature Gas Price Estimate

    Firm Analyst 2015 estimate 2016 estimate
    Raymond James Marshall Adkins 3
    BNP Paribas SA Teri Viswanath 3.25
    Citigroup 2.7
    EIA 3.52
    Henry Hub (150116) 3.16

    DGAZ Trade Parameters

    Resistance: ?
    Support: 12.0
    Current price: 12.52 ()
    Swing range:
    Price swing range: 1.5 (+/- 0.60)
    Buy: < 12 Sell: > ?

    UGAZ Trade Parameters

    Resistance: 2.6
    Support: ?
    Current price: 2.44 (160101)
    Price swing range: 1.0 (+/- 0.5)
    Buy: < ? Sell: > ?

    DGAZ/UGAZ Trend

    UGAZ up?
    DGAZ down?

    For day trade, identify the potential trend of the price movement and try to prevent the one which has the price moving from high to low. In the past five days, there are at least one such trend in order to bet that the buy low sell in the same day approach.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


*

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>